Financial Goal Analysis

Your plan, from 35 to 95.

This analysis takes what you own today, adds what you save each year, and tests it against sixty years of markets. It answers one question: how likely is it that your money outlasts you? The short answer is that the portfolio as it stands today gets you there about two thirds of the time. Three changes move that to roughly nine times in ten.

Prepared by

Daniel Brooks

Firm

Meridian Wealth Partners, LLC

Contact

312.555.0148 · info@meridianwealthpartners.example.com

Status

Draft for discussion

Investment assets

$197,420

7 accounts

custodian statements, 30 Jun 2026

Probability of success — today

65%

Below the 70–90% confidence zone

Monte Carlo model, 1,000 trials

Probability of success — recommended

89%

Inside the confidence zone

Largest single holding

17.4%

QQQM, above the 15% guideline

E*TRADE Roth IRA statement, Jun 2026

In the live product, a citation like this one opens the source document. Here it's just a label.

The finding. Run as-is, the plan succeeds in about two thirds of simulated markets. That sits below the 70–90% confidence zone we target. The gap does not close by picking a different fund lineup. It closes by claiming Social Security at 70 instead of 67, stepping retirement spending down from $150,000 to $130,000 once the savings stop, and letting the portfolio de-risk on a schedule rather than staying 88% in stocks into your sixties.

1

Personal information and goals

Everything downstream depends on this being right. Read it first.

Household

Client 1Age 35

Client 2Physical therapy practice

Household income$250,000

ChildrenTwo

ResidenceIllinois

Retirement age65 (2056)

Analysis age95 (2086)

Client 2’s practice is open Tuesdays and Thursdays. Joint meeting requested for early August, evening slots.

Goals

Living expense, working years$150,000

Living expense, retired$130,000

Inflation on spending2.50%

Social Security, combined$80,600 at 70

College, two childrenNot yet sized

Health care before MedicareNot yet sized

The 529 comparison is on hold at your request and comes back in the spring. Until the college goal is priced, the probability of success below is optimistic. Health care between retirement at 65 and Medicare is a real cost and is likewise not in these numbers yet.

Net worth summary

What you own, as reconciled from custodial statements dated 30 June 2026.

Description	Total
Investment assets
Taxable and TOD accounts	$49,083
Retirement accounts	$142,550
Health savings account	$5,787
Total investment assets	$197,420
Other assets
Home, property, personal	NOT ON FILE
Liabilities
Mortgage and other debt	NOT ON FILE
Net worth (investment assets only)	$197,420

Home equity, other real property, and household liabilities are not on file. Add them and net worth changes, though the retirement projection below is driven by investment assets and does not depend on them.

2

Resource summary

Account by account, with the largest position in each.

Account	Custodian	Tax type	Largest position	Value
Morgan Stanley 401(k)	Morgan Stanley	Retirement — Roth	BlackRock S&P 500 Index	$96,303
Roth IRA	E*TRADE	Retirement — Roth	QQQM	$31,080
Self-Directed Brokerage (TOD)	E*TRADE	Taxable	VT	$28,046
Rollover IRA	E*TRADE	Retirement — Traditional	SPYM	$15,167
MS at Work Self-Directed	Morgan Stanley	Taxable	MS common stock	$12,024
Fidelity Digital Assets	Fidelity	Taxable	IBIT	$9,013
Health Savings Account	Fidelity	HSA	QQQM	$5,787
Total investment assets				$197,420

Retirement income

Source	Filing age	First-year benefit	Assign to
Social Security, Client 1 + Client 2 (current plan)	67	$65,000	Fund all goals
Social Security, Client 1 + Client 2 (recommended)	70	$80,600	Fund all goals

Combined benefit is a planning estimate, not a Social Security Administration statement. Pull both earnings records before the August meeting and we will replace it. Delaying from 67 to 70 raises the benefit roughly 24% and it is inflation-adjusted for life, which is the cheapest longevity insurance available to you.

3

Current portfolio allocation

Every asset class you hold, with the expected return we assign to it.

Stock Bond Alternative Cash

Weighted expected return7.2%

Standard deviation15.8%

Percent stock87.3%

Great Recession loss estimate-45.4%

The portfolio earns a high expected return because it takes a high amount of risk. A repeat of 2007–09 takes roughly 45% off it. That is survivable at 35 with thirty years of paychecks behind you. It is not survivable at 64.

Asset class	Bucket	Expected return	Std deviation	Value	% of total
US Large Cap Core	Stock	7.5%	15.5%	$74,854	37.9%
US Equity Other / Broad	Stock	7.3%	16.0%	$36,599	18.5%
US Large Cap Growth	Stock	8.0%	18.0%	$34,374	17.4%
Global & International Equity	Stock	7.4%	16.5%	$14,480	7.3%
Individual Stocks (single name)	Stock	7.5%	28.0%	$12,023	6.1%
Digital Assets	Alternative	6.0%	60.0%	$11,443	5.8%
Taxable Bond / Core Fixed Income	Bond	4.6%	5.2%	$5,552	2.8%
Cash & Money Market	Cash	3.2%	0.8%	$5,148	2.6%
Commodities	Alternative	4.5%	15.0%	$2,947	1.5%
Total		7.2%	15.8%	$197,420	100.0%

4

Investment assets by tax category

What is spendable now and what carries a tax consequence.

Category	Accounts	Value	% of total	Notes
Taxable / TOD	3	$49,083	24.9%	Spendable now. Capital gains on sale.
Roth (401k + Roth IRA)	2	$127,383	64.5%	Tax-free growth. Penalty before 59½.
Traditional (Rollover IRA)	1	$15,167	7.7%	Taxed on withdrawal. RMDs at 73.
Health savings account	1	$5,787	2.9%	Triple tax-free for qualified medical.
Total	7	$197,420	100.0%

Roth is the largest bucket here, which is unusual and good. It also means the Roth conversion lever most households have is largely spent. The Rollover IRA is the only pre-tax money of size, and the beneficiary form on it is still outstanding.

5

Model portfolio table

Meridian’s model set, plus your current portfolio and the recommended glide path, run through the same 1,000 simulations.

Portfolio	Cash	Bond	Stock	Alt	Expected return	Std dev	Bear market loss
Meridian 1 — Capital Preservation	6%	70%	20%	4%	4.9%	5.0%	0.1%
Meridian 2 — Income	5%	55%	35%	5%	5.4%	6.6%	-10.1%
Meridian 3 — Balanced	4%	41%	50%	5%	5.9%	8.5%	-20.0%
Meridian 4 — Growth	3%	27%	65%	5%	6.4%	10.6%	-29.8%
Meridian 5 — Aggressive Growth	2%	13%	80%	5%	6.9%	12.7%	-39.6%
Meridian Glide Path	2%	4%	88%	6%	7.1%	14.0%	-45.3%
Current portfolio	3%	3%	87%	7%	7.2%	15.8%	-45.4%

Read this table sideways, not down. Every Meridian model lands within a couple of points of the same probability of success, from Capital Preservation to Aggressive Growth. The portfolio is not what is deciding this plan. The savings rate, the Social Security claiming age, and the retirement spending number are. What the portfolio choice actually decides is how much wealth is left over and how hard the ride is: Aggressive Growth leaves roughly three times the safety margin of Capital Preservation, and loses 40% in a bad year instead of nothing.

6

Results — current and recommended

Two scenarios, 1,000 simulated market histories each, run from age 35 to 95.

Probability of success

Current scenario

Below the confidence zone

Probability of success

Recommended scenario

Inside the confidence zone

Confidence zone, 70–90%

	Current scenario	Recommended scenario	Change
Retirement age	65 in 2056	65 in 2056
Analysis age	95 in 2086	95 in 2086
Social Security filing age	67	70	+3 years
Combined first-year benefit	$65,000	$80,600	+$15,600
Living expense, working	$150,000	$150,000
Living expense, retired	$150,000	$130,000	-$20,000
Percent stock, today	87%	88%
Percent stock, at 65	87%	50%	-37 pts
QQQM single position	17.4%	15.0%	trimmed to policy
Digital assets	5.8%	3.0%	trimmed to policy
Annual savings, year one	$35,000	$35,000
Probability of success	65%	89%	+24 pts

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Inside the numbers

The full distribution of the recommended scenario. Each band holds a slice of the 1,000 trials.

5th–95th percentile 25th–75th percentile Median

Checkpoint trials

Percentile	Year 10	Year 20	Year 30	Year 40	Year 50	End of plan	End, today’s $	Money runs out
99th percentile	$1,410,223	$3,670,667	$10,929,931	$24,757,572	$47,517,047	$87,963,009	$19,992,548	—
75th percentile	$635,296	$1,778,923	$7,041,749	$7,816,484	$12,380,498	$23,405,143	$5,319,605	—
50th percentile	$1,038,575	$1,535,467	$5,283,301	$4,894,409	$8,353,919	$11,351,082	$2,579,915	—
25th percentile	$959,571	$2,452,165	$4,269,553	$3,813,118	$4,032,261	$4,051,558	$920,853	—
1st percentile	$745,556	$1,503,761	$3,911,896	$2,549,257	$994,858	$0	$0	2080

The 1st percentile trial runs out of money in 2080, at age 89. That is what the 11% failure rate looks like from the inside. It is not a market that never recovers, it is a market that falls hard in the first few years of retirement, when the portfolio is largest and the withdrawals have already started.

8

The glide path

Stock falls from 88% today to 50% at retirement and 40% by 75. Bonds absorb everything it gives up.

Stock Bond Alternative Cash

9

Forty-year cash flow detail

The recommended scenario at average returns, age 35 through 74. All dollars nominal.

Year	Age	Earned income	Social Security	Taxes	Spending	Net to portfolio	Stock / Bond	Blended return
2026	35	$250,000	—	$65,000	$150,000	$35,000	88 / 4	7.15%
2027	36	$257,500	—	$66,950	$153,750	$36,800	87 / 5	7.11%
2028	37	$265,225	—	$68,959	$157,594	$38,673	85 / 7	7.07%
2029	38	$273,182	—	$71,027	$161,534	$40,621	84 / 8	7.02%
2030	39	$281,377	—	$73,158	$165,572	$42,647	83 / 9	6.98%
2031	40	$289,819	—	$75,353	$169,711	$44,754	82 / 11	6.94%
2032	41	$298,513	—	$77,613	$173,954	$46,946	80 / 12	6.90%
2033	42	$307,468	—	$79,942	$178,303	$49,224	79 / 14	6.86%
2034	43	$316,693	—	$82,340	$182,760	$51,592	78 / 15	6.82%
2035	44	$326,193	—	$84,810	$187,329	$54,054	77 / 16	6.78%
2036	45	$335,979	—	$87,355	$192,013	$56,612	75 / 18	6.74%
2037	46	$346,058	—	$89,975	$196,813	$59,270	74 / 19	6.70%
2038	47	$356,440	—	$92,674	$201,733	$62,032	73 / 20	6.66%
2039	48	$367,133	—	$95,455	$206,777	$64,902	72 / 22	6.62%
2040	49	$378,147	—	$98,318	$211,946	$67,883	70 / 23	6.57%
2041	50	$389,492	—	$101,268	$217,245	$70,979	69 / 25	6.53%
2042	51	$401,177	—	$104,306	$222,676	$74,195	68 / 26	6.49%
2043	52	$413,212	—	$107,435	$228,243	$77,534	66 / 27	6.45%
2044	53	$425,608	—	$110,658	$233,949	$81,001	65 / 29	6.41%
2045	54	$438,377	—	$113,978	$239,798	$84,601	64 / 30	6.37%
2046	55	$451,528	—	$117,397	$245,792	$88,338	63 / 31	6.33%
2047	56	$465,074	—	$120,919	$251,937	$92,217	61 / 33	6.29%
2048	57	$479,026	—	$124,547	$258,236	$96,243	60 / 34	6.25%
2049	58	$493,397	—	$128,283	$264,692	$100,422	59 / 35	6.21%
2050	59	$508,199	—	$132,132	$271,309	$104,758	58 / 37	6.17%
2051	60	$523,444	—	$136,096	$278,092	$109,257	56 / 38	6.12%
2052	61	$539,148	—	$140,178	$285,044	$113,925	55 / 40	6.08%
2053	62	$555,322	—	$144,384	$292,170	$118,768	54 / 41	6.04%
2054	63	$571,982	—	$148,715	$299,474	$123,792	53 / 42	6.00%
2055	64	$589,141	—	$153,177	$306,961	$129,004	51 / 44	5.96%
2056	65	—	—	$59,857	$272,684	-$332,541	50 / 45	5.92%
2057	66	—	—	$61,354	$279,501	-$340,855	49 / 44	5.87%
2058	67	—	—	$62,888	$286,488	-$349,376	48 / 45	5.83%
2059	68	—	—	$64,460	$293,651	-$358,111	47 / 46	5.80%
2060	69	—	—	$66,071	$300,992	-$367,063	46 / 47	5.77%
2061	70	—	$191,280	$25,735	$308,517	-$142,971	45 / 48	5.74%
2062	71	—	$196,062	$26,378	$316,230	-$146,545	44 / 49	5.70%
2063	72	—	$200,964	$27,038	$324,135	-$150,209	43 / 50	5.67%
2064	73	—	$205,988	$27,714	$332,239	-$153,964	42 / 51	5.64%
2065	74	—	$211,138	$28,406	$340,545	-$157,813	41 / 52	5.61%

10

Capital market assumptions

Meridian’s long-horizon estimates. Every return in this report is built from these.

Asset class	Bucket	Expected return	Standard deviation
Cash & Money Market	Cash	3.2%	0.8%
US Large Cap Core	Stock	7.5%	15.5%
US Large Cap Growth	Stock	8.0%	18.0%
US Equity Other / Broad	Stock	7.3%	16.0%
Global & International Equity	Stock	7.4%	16.5%
Individual Stocks (single name)	Stock	7.5%	28.0%
Taxable Bond / Core Fixed Income	Bond	4.6%	5.2%
Municipal Ladder	Bond	4.0%	4.0%
Commodities	Alternative	4.5%	15.0%
Digital Assets	Alternative	6.0%	60.0%

Nominal, before fees and taxes. These are estimates of long-run averages, not forecasts of any particular year. Actual returns will vary widely around them, which is the entire reason this report runs a simulation instead of a single line.

Bear market stress

Bucket	Return, Nov 2007 – Feb 2009
Stock	-50.9%
Bond	15.6%
Alternative	-19.9%
Cash	2.3%

The bear market loss shown in the model table applies these bucket returns to each portfolio’s mix. It is a stress test against a historical episode, not a prediction and not a floor.

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Tax and inflation assumptions

Tax

Effective rate, working26.0%

Effective rate, retired18.0%

Portion of Social Security taxed85%

Early-withdrawal penaltiesIncluded

Simplified blended effective rates covering federal, Illinois, and payroll. Not a substitute for your CPA’s projection.

Inflation

General inflation2.50%

Wage growth3.00%

Social Security COLA2.50%

Health care inflationNot yet modeled

Health care typically runs several points above general inflation. Once the pre-Medicare gap is priced, expect the probability of success to fall.

12

Where the portfolio sits against firm policy

Meridian guideline	Limit	Current	Status
Any single position, as % of the relationship	15%	17.4% (QQQM)	Over
Digital assets, treated as speculative	3%	5.8% (IBIT)	Over
Core equity in quality large-cap	Preferred	Broadly met	Met
Municipal ladder for taxable fixed income	Preferred	No taxable FI yet	n/a

Both breaches are trimmed to policy in year one of the recommended scenario. The QQQM trim happens inside the Roth IRA, where it costs nothing in tax. The IBIT position spans a taxable account and a retirement account, so sequence the taxable side against your capital gains position for the year.

What we do next

Action	Owner	When
Trim QQQM to 15% and IBIT to 3%, Roth first	Advisor	This quarter
Pull both Social Security earnings records and replace the estimated benefit	Client	Before August
Confirm the $130,000 retirement spending figure is livable	Client	August meeting
Start transfer paperwork on the ~$40,000 Principal 401(k)	Operations	This month
Return the Rollover IRA beneficiary form	Client	Outstanding
Size the college goal and revisit the 529 comparison	Advisor	Spring 2027
Price health care between retirement and Medicare	Advisor	Next review
Schedule the joint meeting, evening slot	Assistant	Early August

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Key asset class risks

Stocks

Prices move, sometimes a great deal, and a company can fail outright. Concentration in one name compounds this: a diversified index falling 50% is a market event, a single stock falling 90% is a Tuesday.

Commodities

Prices swing on supply, weather, politics, and currency. They produce no income and can spend long stretches going nowhere.

Bonds

When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Issuers can default. And a bond yielding less than inflation loses purchasing power even when it pays exactly as promised.

Concentrated employer stock

Your paycheck and a slice of your portfolio depend on the same company. When that company has a bad year, both arrive at once.

Digital assets

Speculative. No cash flows, no earnings, no intrinsic value to anchor a price. Drawdowns of 70% or more have happened repeatedly and quickly. Meridian caps these at 3% of a relationship precisely because we cannot rule out a total loss.

Cash

Safe in nominal terms, and a slow loss in real ones. Cash is a place to hold money you will spend soon, not a place to grow it.

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Glossary

Probability of success

The share of 1,000 simulated market histories in which the portfolio funds every goal through age 95 without hitting zero. 89% means it worked in 890 of them and failed in 110. It is not a grade and it is not a guarantee.

Confidence zone

The 70–90% band we target. Below it, the plan is fragile. Above it, you are very likely underspending in the years you are healthy enough to enjoy the money.

Monte Carlo simulation

Running the same plan a thousand times, each with a different random sequence of returns drawn from the assumptions. It exists because a single average-return line hides the thing that actually breaks retirements: bad returns arriving in the wrong order.

Sequence-of-returns risk

Two portfolios can earn the same average return over thirty years and end in completely different places, purely based on whether the bad years came first. It matters most in the five years either side of retirement.

Safety margin

The median amount left over at the end of the plan, expressed in today’s dollars. What the heirs, or the charities, or the late-life care would have to work with.

Standard deviation

How far returns typically stray from their average. A portfolio with an 8% expected return and a 16% standard deviation will spend plenty of years well outside that 8%.

Glide path

A schedule that reduces stock exposure as retirement approaches, so the portfolio’s risk falls as the ability to recover from a loss falls with it.

Nominal vs. today’s dollars

Nominal figures are the actual dollar amounts in that future year. Today’s dollars strip out inflation so the number means something to you now. $7.4 million in 2065 is roughly $2.8 million in today’s money.

Expected return

Our long-run estimate for an asset class. It is the center of a wide distribution, not a rate you will be credited with.

Bear market loss

What a portfolio with this mix would have lost across the worst stretch of the 2007–09 decline. A stress test against history, not a floor.

About this report. Prepared by Daniel Brooks, Meridian Wealth Partners, LLC. Account values are reconciled from custodial statements dated 30 June 2026 and have not been independently audited. This is not an account statement.

Projections are estimates. Every forward-looking figure in this report, including probabilities of success, expected returns, and projected balances, is hypothetical. It is generated by a model, not by actual trading, and it is not a guarantee. Real results will differ, potentially by a wide margin. Small changes in the assumptions produce large changes in the results, which is why the assumptions are printed in full and why we ask you to read them.

What the probability of success does and does not mean. It reflects the percentage of simulated trials in which all goals were funded. It does not account for actual market conditions, and it cannot predict them. A high number is not a promise and a low number is not a verdict. Both are inputs to a conversation.

Asset classification and returns. Assets are grouped by their broad characteristics. Some holdings carry features of more than one class, so groupings may be imperfect. Return assumptions are long-horizon estimates for broad asset classes, proxied by market indices. You cannot invest directly in an index, and index returns exclude the fees, commissions, and taxes you would actually pay. Past performance does not predict future results.

Not tax, legal, or accounting advice. Meridian Wealth Partners is not a tax or legal advisor. The tax rates used here are simplified planning estimates. Discuss any tax, legal, or estate item in this report with the appropriate professional before acting on it. Withdrawals from qualified or tax-deferred accounts can create income tax liability, and before age 59½, penalties that this simplified model does not fully capture.

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This is a draft. It is a working document prepared for discussion, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security and not an offer or solicitation. Nothing here should be treated as personalized investment advice. Personalized advice can only be rendered after engagement of the firm, execution of the required documentation, and receipt of required disclosures. Meridian has no obligation to monitor or update this report unless you engage us to do so.

Registration. Advisory services offered through Meridian Wealth Partners, LLC, an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or expertise. Additional information is available in the firm’s Form ADV, Form ADV Part 2A Brochure, and Client Relationship Summary, accessible via the SEC’s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure database at adviserinfo.sec.gov, SEC #801-00000.

Confidentiality. This communication may contain privileged and confidential information intended solely for the addressee. If you received it in error, please contact the sender and destroy it.

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